What are the odds of someone seeing their message request on instagram (private accounts)?

I took a risk and dmed a guy I seemed to have some chemistry with IRL – tbf we both pursue each other a fair bit, but seem always too awkward to do anything about it. After about 2 and a half days of him not replying I freaked out and deleted it (for some reason – anxiety probably). People see the message request only if they have already opened their inbox, but they don't get any notification for it, they can choose to accept or decline the request. I just wonder what the odds are he actually saw the message. Do people look at their instagram inbox a lot? What are the odds of someone actually seeing a message request in their inbox? I know it's a dumb question but I'd like to know the likelihood.